The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates when it meets tomorrow(TUESDAY) but the Australian dollar won't fall solely on the back of it and any fall will be short lived, a QUT economist says.
Dr David Willis, from QUT Business School, said the RBA was attempting to instil a fall in the Australian dollar to "what is perceived as a fair value level of 72 cents to 75 cents to the US dollar."
The RBA cut rates to a record low of 2.25 per cent at its February board meeting but kept the cash rate on hold in March and April.
"Despite this cut to an historic low, the currency stands at 79 cents, and, against the cross rates, hardly changed," Dr Willis said.
"Therefore the market seems to have a different view of what is fair value than the RBA.
"The market sees the US economy and monetary policy clearly outweighing any attempt by the RBA to devalue the AUD, so we are becoming a price taker in a fee currency environment rather than a price maker.
"We have to wait until the US economy is strong enough for the US Federal Reserve to start increasing interest rates before our currency falls in any meaningful way towards the 72 cents the RBA wishes."
Dr Willis said the lack of movement on the Australian dollar following the previous rate cut was a "failure of monetary policy" by the RBA as it attempts to lean into the US currency wind.
"We are clearly now not masters of our own destiny when it comes to currency rates," he said.
"Therefore the RBA now needs to stop spending precious monetary support given the policy is having little or only a very marginal effect on either the domestic economy or currency."
Media contact:
Rob Kidd, QUT Media, 07 3138 1841, rj.kidd@qut.edu.au
After hours, Rose Trapnell, 0407 585 901
