Modelling Adverse Weather Impact on Transport Mode Choice: An Exposure-Distance Approach with Nonlinear Weather Response

Overview

Weather is an increasingly significant yet underrepresented determinant in travel demand modelling. Rainfall, temperature, wind, and humidity influence travel behavior by shaping comfort, reliability, perceived safety, waiting conditions, and the attractiveness of different mode alternatives. These effects are particularly relevant for walking, cycling, shared mobility, and multimodal travel, where travellers may be exposed to weather during all or part of the trip. As cities pursue sustainable mobility while facing increasing climate variability, transport models require a more behaviorally grounded representation of how weather affects mode choice, particularly for exposed and multimodal alternatives.

The key theoretical proposition of this study is that weather sensitivity can be conceptualised as an exposure-based component of modal utility. Within a random utility framework, adverse weather increases the disutility of alternatives that involve greater exposure to outdoor conditions. This exposure-related disutility may arise through physical discomfort, perceived inconvenience, waiting uncertainty, reduced protection from rainfall or heat, and increased difficulty during access, transfer, and egress. Importantly, the effect of weather is expected to be nonlinear. Light rainfall may have limited behavioural effect, whereas moderate or heavy rainfall may sharply reduce the utility of exposed alternatives. Similarly, temperature effects are likely to be non-monotonic: both cold and hot conditions may reduce travel comfort, while moderate temperatures may support walking, cycling, and public transport access. Therefore, rainfall thresholds and temperature comfort ranges are central to modelling weather-sensitive mode choice.

This study addresses this gap by developing an Exposure–Distance Framework for weather-sensitive multimodal mode choice. Grounded in random utility theory, the framework conceptualizes adverse weather as an exposure-based source of modal disutility. It measures weather sensitivity through three behavioral dimensions: exposure intensity, referring to the degree of outdoor exposure; exposure location, referring to the trip stage where exposure occurs; and contextual flexibility, referring to the ability to substitute modes, reschedule, combine, or suppress the trip. The framework further recognizes that weather sensitivity is moderated by trip distance and trip purpose, because these shape modal feasibility, substitutability, and activity flexibility.

Research engagement

Data preparation and data analysis. Statistical model development, as well as literature review.

Research activities

The student will be working under Dr Shams Yasmin's supervision as well as will be mentored by Dr Zubair. The student will be developing a statistical model to understand the impact of adverse weather condition on travel choice. This would require data preparation, model development and literature review. The student will be encouraged to work on an article as well.

Research skills

Statisctis and data analysis

Outcomes

Inform travel demand management strategy. An article.

Skills and experience

Data analysis skillset.

Start date

2 November, 2026

End date

19 February, 2027

Location

S block, Gardens Point Campus

Keywords

• Transport
• Mode
• Adverse weather

Contact

Shams Yasmin

31380521

shams.yasmin@qut.edu.au