Antarctica is facing disasters alone, experts warn

The new study, led by QUT and Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future (SAEF), published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), the international framework that governs the continent, is not equipped to handle the scale or speed of emerging crises.

From fastmoving wildlife pandemics to collapsing ice shelves, the authors said the continent is entering a new era of risk without the means needed to respond.

The warning comes after the firstever outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in Antarctica, detected in early 2024.

The paper noted that the virus spread rapidly across sub-Antarctic islands and onto the continent itself, with a “hurried but fragmented” response revealing deep structural weaknesses in how Antarctic nations prepare for emergencies and respond when they arise.

Lead author Professor Michael Bode, from the QUT School of Mathematical Sciences and SAEF, said the outbreak was a wake-up call.

“Antarctica is repeatedly experiencing disasters that the ATS did not see coming, and at a scale that no single country can manage alone,” he said.

The study highlighted a growing list of potential crises including:

• Abrupt, rapid ice shelf collapse and glacial retreat
• Widespread extreme temperatures
• Invasive pathogens
• Cumulative threshold effects of climate change and fishing

While other complex regions like the Arctic, the ocean and even outer space have dedicated disaster management institutions, Antarctica does not.

“Disaster management authorities cover every domain of the planet except Antarctica. Basically, there’s an Antarctic-sized hole in the international disaster management system,” Professor Bode said.

“And the ATS’s consensus-based decision-making, while vital for peace and cooperation, is too slow for fast-moving disasters.

“We’re not talking about hypothetical risks. Ice shelves are collapsing, wildlife diseases are spreading and tourism is increasing. Without a coordinated authority, we’re flying blind.”

Co-author Professor Andrew Mackintosh, Head of the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University and Chief Investigator of SAEF, said Antarctica is experiencing some of the most abrupt and concerning effects of global warming.

“From the regime change in sea ice extent to the progressive loss of floating ice shelves, changes in Antarctica have been dramatic and are not entirely predictable. A disaster such as the large-scale collapse of an ice shelf the size of a small country like Belgium is not out of the question in our lifetimes,” Professor Mackintosh said.

The research team have sketched out a roadmap for a new Antarctic disaster management authority or mechanism: a body that would coordinate early warning systems, preparedness planning and multinational emergency responses.

“We cannot continue with the status quo,” Professor Bode said.

“But Australia has stood up repeatedly in the Antarctic to solve big challenges. We were pivotal in the decision to ban mining on the continent, and we were an essential contributor to the establishment of the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, which conserves Southern Ocean Environments including through fisheries management. It’s time for us to lead again.”

Read the full study, The Antarctic Treaty System Needs a Disaster Management Authority, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, online.

This research was funded by the Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF).

SAEF is a Monash University-led research and workforce development program, funded by the Australian Research Council. SAEF is delivering leading Antarctic and Southern Ocean science to benefit Australians, our neighbours in the Asia-Pacific, and society around the globe in the context of a changing climate.

Main phone: Henrique Setim via Unsplash.

Media contact:

Lauren Baxter

QUT Media

media@qut.edu.au

07 3138 2361 / 0407 585 901 (After Hours)