What comes next? The 2026 midterms and the party Trump leaves behind

Dr Morgan Rees, QUT School of Justice

Eleven years ago, on 16 June 2015, Donald Trump descended on a golden escalator in his New York City building Trump Tower to announce his candidacy for the presidency of the United States. For many, Trump’s announcement seemed more like a sales stunt designed to bolster the Trump brand.

Yet his divisive rhetoric quickly came to dominate national headlines. His political outsider persona and ‘America First’ policy emphasis proved highly effective motivating many Americans who had felt left behind on the back of job losses driven largely by globalisation and decades of decline to their standards of living.

Now, a little over a decade on from his unprecedented political rise and in the twilight of his political career, Trump faces the final election of his time in office – the 2026 midterm elections.

While Trump himself is not on the ballot, the midterms have come to serve as a kind of national referendum on the President’s performance. And it is important to point out that presidents rarely walk away from the midterms unscathed. The president’s party has usually lost ground in the House, with Trump himself losing the Republican majority during his first administration.

But something is different this time.

For the last decade, Donald Trump has been the face of the Republican party – a party which, at times, has come to look more like a ‘cult of personality’ bending to Trump’s every whim. The now 80-year-old faces his lowest poll numbers, and a growing level of dissatisfaction from a country reeling from cost-of-living pressures, conflict with Iran, and a diminishing global standing. The Republicans appear almost rudderless

Ominous signs are on the horizon for Republicans. Despite what happens on November 3, Republicans are left with an awkward question: “What comes next?”.

Well, it depends how bad the defeat actually is.

Losing the House would be painful for the Republicans, but hardly unprecedented. Democrats would control the legislative agenda and be handed control of committees with investigative powers. For Trump, this would mean two years of obstruction, confrontation and likely see a greater reliance on the use of executive authority to pursue his agenda.

Losing the Senate at the same time could be far more serious. It would give Democrats considerable control over Trump’s ability to secure judicial and other senior political appointments and make passing meaningful legislation near impossible.

But the real problem for Republicans is not simply what defeat means for the final years of the Trump presidency. It’s what happens afterwards.

2026 is not 2018. Trump cannot run for president again. So, whatever happens during the 2026 midterms, the countdown to a post-Trump Republican party begins.

And Republicans have spent dangerously little of the last decade preparing for it.

Well, they’re in a bit of a political pickle – largely of their own making. This is a major problem.

For the last decade Republicans had to fall in line behind Trump – no other position became viable because his stronghold on the MAGA base was so strong.

And since, few Republicans have dared to stand up to him much less directly oppose him. Those that have, including the likes of former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, and Utha Senator Mitt Romney quickly found themselves in the political firing line.

Perhaps most notably, Trump’s first Vice President, Mike Pence, who had been a fierce and loyal supporter of the President through the first term quickly found himself in the sights of MAGA-loyalists as he refused Trump’s demand to interfere in the certification of Joe Biden’s victory of the 2020 election. As rioters stormed the Capitol chanting ‘Hang Mike Pence’, Trump reportedly responded that Pence ‘deserves it’.

This is the uncomfortable legacy Trump leaves the Republican Party. For a decade, opposition to Trump has been politically dangerous, while loyalty has increasingly become a prerequisite for advancement. That works while Trump remains at the centre of Republican politics. It becomes considerably more complicated when he is no longer there.

Regardless of how the midterms go – all eyes will turn to the 2028 Presidential election race. Trump’s political theatre – out of necessity – will need to fall into the background. Movement is already occurring within the Democratic camp, but for Republicans there are far more questions.

While Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s names have been floated, Trump has thus far refused to endorse either. Vance currently leads polling of potential Republican candidates, but the more difficult question is whether Trump’s political coalition can simply be inherited. After a decade dominated by the spectacle of Trump’s chaotic political dominance, Republicans are at a crossroads.

There is only one Donald Trump – with him no longer in contention for political office, the MAGA movement, and the Republican party built around it, faces an uncertain future.

Republicans must figure out their future direction – and fast.

Dr Morgan Rees is a Senior Lecturer of Policy and Politics in the QUT School of Justice. He teaches in the Policy and Politics major, focusing on global justice and human rights. His research is primarily in US and Australian foreign policy with current projects looking to examine the future of Australia-US relations in context of the rise of Trump and an increasingly inward-looking US.