Labor needs a swing of eight per cent to overcome Queensland’s conservative vote stronghold to comfortably win a Federal election says Past Speaker of the Queensland Parliament and QUT Adjunct Associate Professor John Mickel.
“2019 was a Labor electoral bloodbath here, with a 4.3 per cent swing to the LNP. No Queensland Labor seat was won with more than 50 per cent of the primary vote,” said Professor Mickel.
“The two-party preferred vote was 58.44% to the Coalition – so an 8.44% swing makes it level pegging in Queensland. That is a formidable task.
“Winning campaigns don’t give their opponents a 17-seat start – that’s the state of play as the LNP has 23 seats in Queensland, compared to Labor’s six.
“Labor must mount significant campaigns in all Queensland House of Representative electorates to shore up its Senate vote which was a disaster in 2019 with just one Labor senator elected – the party’s worst ever performance.
“There are two vacant seats north of Noosa - Flynn based in and around Gladstone and Dawson based in and around Mackay.
“Flynn requires a swing of 8.66% and Dawson 14.6% - in regional Queensland this is an enormous ask, yet Labor must recover from its historic primary vote collapse (20.28%) in Dawson to be competitive.”
Professor Mickel said Labor was also focussed on former central Queensland Labor seat Capricornia (Rockhampton) which swung heavily against Labor in 2019 and now has a 12.35% LNP electoral buffer.
“Returning to southeast Queensland, the vacant LNP seat of Bowman would need a huge swing of more than 10% for Labor to win,” he said.
“Labor must also recover its vote in the outer areas of Brisbane - Longman, Dickson and Petrie, as well as outer southern and south-eastern areas covered in the electorates of Forde and Bonner.
“The Greens, meanwhile, entertain some hopes for the seat of Ryan in the city’s west, which is currently held by the LNP, and will target seats in the inner north and inner south.”
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