Three Queensland Ministers have announced their retirement from politics in the past week; with Kate Jones and Anthony Lynham both calling time today, following Mundingburra MP Coralee O'Rourke’s announcement last week.
Past Speaker of the Queensland Parliament and QUT Adjunct Associate Professor John Mickel says Kate Jones will go into history as being the candidate who defeated a Premier in his own electorate.
“The stoic effort of Kate Jones in 2015, when it was considered impossible for Labor to win the seat or Government, made her the comeback kid of Queensland when she defeated Premier Campbell Newman in Ashgrove,” said Professor Mickel.
“She then tightened her electoral grip on the area in 2017 with a runaway win on a two-party preferred basis in the redrawn and renamed seat of Cooper.
“Ms Jones will farewell her political career after earning a solid reputation with stakeholders in the tourism industry.
“Unlike 2012, this time around she leaves at a time of her choosing, giving Labor the difficult task of finding a replacement who can match her personality and style in a marginal seat.”
Professor Mickel said on the primary vote, Ms Jones scored 40% to the LNP’s 35% with the Greens scoring a healthy 20.6 % of the vote.
“It’s unlikely the Greens can overwhelm Labor’s primary vote at this election as they did in parts of the seat in the Brisbane City Council election,” he said.
“However, any new candidate will not have Ms Jones’s name recognition nor personal following and the primary vote will suffer as a result. I think though that Labor should hold Cooper on a reduced margin with the help of preferences from the Greens.”
Professor Mickel added that the sudden retirement of Minister Anthony Lynham is a double whammy for Labor on election eve, but he believes the seat of Stafford remains safe.
“The 12 per cent buffer Dr Lynham leaves his successor means Labor is in good shape to retain the electorate at the 2020 election on October 31,” said Professor Mickel.
“Dr Lynham won every booth in Stafford on the primary vote, with understandably his strongest booth being the Prince Charles hospital and the small Windsor booth his worst.
“Dr Lynham’s strong primary vote in the electorate was bolstered further when he received 76% of Greens preferences.
“Such a late withdrawal coupled with Dr Lynham’s high profile as well his professional regard as an oral and maxillofacial surgeon and academic will possibly see an erosion of Labor’s primary vote, but I doubt the seat will change hands.
“He is a loss to political life. His depth of life experiences beyond politics brought more than many to the task.”
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