There was more at play behind the Sydney Roosters success in NRL final than met the eye - basic economics principles were applied to the selection of the winning team.
QUT behavioural economics expert Professor Uwe Dulleck, from the QUT School of Economics and Finance, helped Roosters CEO Brian Canavan apply economics principles to player selection.
"It's a matter of looking at the right statistics and applying productivity analysis," Professor Dulleck said.
"Some players may score fewer points but overall they could be better 'value for money' than the highest scoring players.
"This is because the players who score in close matches, when the game could go either way, are the ones to watch because they come up with the goods at crucial moments.
"A player who plays well when the game is already decided can clock up top match statistics without delivering value when it counts.
"The players who perform well under pressure are, therefore, likely to be the ones that are key to achieving success."
Professor Dulleck said economic analysis that looks at what economists call the "marginal impact" - the difference a player makes to the team - is important.
"For example, a player might not be the highest scorer but might be instrumental in setting up goals for teammates.
"This means that focussing just on score averages will not reveal the true value of a player but if you ask the question of when and with whom the players played you can obtain valuable information."
Professor Dulleck said applied productivity analysis combined with information on player salaries could help explain why some players were overpaid.
"Entry wages play a big role here because they have been shown to determine player wages over their whole career," he said.
"Players who enter on a high wage are always on a higher trajectory than those who enter at a lower salary even though they are not contributing as much to the team's success."
Mr Canavan said it was worthwhile undertaking a productivity analysis of a specific rugby league player.
"It enabled us to develop a far deeper analysis of player contract values," he said.
"In order to meet NRL salary cap limitations, there is a great emphasis on striking the right balance in the team, this is intrinsically linked to team performance. Professor Dulleck helped us to get a much more advanced understanding of these issues."
Media contact: Niki Widdowson, 07 3138 2999 or n.widdowson@qut.edu.au.
