Units

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Sample subject outline - 5 Week Teaching Period - 5 2012

Note: Subject outlines often change before the semester begins. Below is a sample outline.

Rationale

Risk is an invariant feature of any project. But risk is schizophrenic. On the one hand, risks can threaten the achievement of a project's objectives. This is the sole perspective of a naive project manager. On the other hand, risks can also create major opportunities which projects can exploit to achieve substantial organisational benefits. The complex project manager must be able to distinguish and balance both perspectives.

Traditional risk management approaches generally assume that projects are linear and reductionist. Although acceptable for simple projects where the project outputs and project pathway are well-defined, this simplifying assumption is contrary to the nature of complex projects. Therefore, the unit explores a range of advanced approaches including 'systems thinking', risk analytics and real options to emphasise systemic approaches to managing risks within a complex project management environment.

Moreover, judgement and decision-making in complex projects can be impaired by a range of cognitive heuristics and biases, and political factors. As a result, an infamous but perennial feature of many complex projects is gross cost and schedule estimates. The unit examines these factors, considers their impact, and proposes counter strategies.

Aims

The aim of the unit is to equip course members with the knowledge, conceptual frameworks and techniques (both qualitative and quantitative) to effectively manage risk in a complex project management environment. The learning is reinforced by case studies and vignettes drawn from topical areas including outsourcing, research and development, natural resources exploration and acquisition, to enable application and critical reflection. As well, the unit aims to enable course members to recognise and counter the cognitive biases, political factors and other factors which can impair complex project judgement and decision-making.

Objectives

Course Learning Goals (Corporate Programs)

The QUT Business School has established the Assurance of Learning (AOL) Goals to meet contemporary industry needs and standards. Achieving these learning outcomes will assist you to meet the desired graduate outcomes set at QUT - aligned with other internationally renowned business schools. Students will develop the following capabilities relevant to a contemporary global and sustainable business environment:

Program Goal 1: Understand Self and Lead Others in an International Environment (ULO)

1.1 Develop the personal attributes of action and outcome orientation, ability to influence and self-knowledge that distinguish the manager of complex projects.
1.2 Develop and demonstrate the leadership and communication skills to manage the staff involved in complex projects
1.3 Work effectively in managing people and a wide range of stakeholders through understanding of culture cognition, personality and human lifecycle.

Program Goal 2: Lead Strategic Planning, Design and Implementation (SPDI)

2.1 Understand the context of complex projects and the design and implementation of appropriate project strategy and systems to match emergent requirements
2.2 Demonstrate the capacity to design, establish and manage the organisational architecture for complex projects
2.3 Develop the understanding and skill to deliver probity and governance requirements for complex projects
2.4 Develop the capacity to design and implement innovative business planning, reporting and performance measurement systems.

Program Goal 3: Think Holistically: Innovate and Creatively Problem Solve (TH)

3.1 Develop the insights to manage people and systems subject to on-going change and constantly adapt to emergent conditions
3.2 Demonstrate the capacity to envision novel, critical and creative responses to complex and emerging problems

Program Goal 4: Develop the understanding of and skill to design, manage and lead strategic procurement practices that respond to the challenges of the complex organisational and project management environment. (SP)

4.1 Develop, plan and implement a comprehensive and effective acquisition strategy to deliver complex strategic capabilities.
4.2 Assess and implement the contractual requirements of a complex acquisition taking into account the implications of international law and conventions, intellectual property rights, and ensuring the appropriate allocation and mitigation of contractual risks.
4.3 Develop, plan and implement strategic sourcing arrangements covering the capability life-cycle.

Unit Objectives
At the completion of the unit, students will be able to:
1. Identify and analyse risks in a complex project environment and plan appropriate risk treatments.
2. Apply a range of quantitative risk analysis techniques (including Monte Carlo simulation, real options, forecasting and optimisation) and interpret their results.
3. Distinguish and mitigate the major cognitive biases which affect decision-making in a complex project management environment.
4. Implement strategies to mitigate recurrent and gross risk underestimation in complex projects.

The specific course learning goals and unit objectives that apply to this unit are shown in the assessment section of this unit outline.

Content

• Revision of generally accepted risk management practices (including risk identification, analysis and treatment).



• Examining the implications of systems thinking upon risk management in complex project management environments.



• Overview of international risk management standards/frameworks.



• Application and interpretation of advanced quantitative risk analysis techniques including Monte Carlo analysis, real options, forecasting and optimisation.



• Organisational capability management maturity models for risk.



• Nature and impact of cognitive biases on judgement and decision-making in complex projects.



• Causes of recurrent underestimates of risk in complex projects and potential solutions.

Approaches to Teaching and Learning

A blended learning approach is taken with this unit. Students will engage with the material through a blend of:

• Guided instruction, learning activities, readings and cases presented in a comprehensive study guide. Students are expected to engage with the readings and learning activities in the study guide prior to the face to face session.


• A comprehensive set of readings, cases, workplace documents and other authentic materials that will be provided in advance with the study guide. Set texts for units will be provided in advance to students.


• Intensive face-to-face sessions for each of the modules of the unit, where students will actively engage in exploring the concepts, issues and cases provided in the study guide. A focus on facilitated group learning and collaboration is a feature of the face-to-face sessions rather than content input by the lecturer.


• A Blackboard learning site where additional materials, and computer simulations can be shared through the life of the unit. Collaboration tools for students such as blogs, wikis, discussion forums, and group tools will be a feature of the Blackboard site.

There is a commitment to critical inquiry and intellectual debate in regard to the material covered, and students are encouraged to relate the theories and research discussed to situations known to them.

Assessment

Students will receive feedback in various forms throughout the semester which may include:

• Informal: worked examples, such as verbal feedback in class, personal consultation


• Formal: in writing, such as checklists (e.g. criteria sheets), written commentary


• Direct: to individual students, either in written form or in consultation


• Indirect: to the whole class

Assessment name: Quantitative Risk Analysis
Description: Course members will apply the risk analytical techniques studied to a series of representative project management scenarios and interpret the results. See the GSZ512 Formative Case Study for more detail.

Purpose:To allow course members to apply the risk analytics techniques to topical project management problems.
Format: All spreadsheet models are to be consolidated into a single Excel 2007 workbook file.

Length/Duration: Spreadsheet models for different risk scenarios accompanied by explanatory notes not exceeding 750 words.
Relates to objectives: Unit objectives: 1, 2 and AOL goals: TBA
Weight: 40%
Internal or external: Internal
Group or individual: Individual
Due date: End of Module 3

Assessment name: Organisational Relevance
Description: Course members will write an essay critically appraising the organisational relevance of one of the following topics:
1. The application of real options to complex project management.
2. Potential explanations-technical, psychological or politico-economic-for endemic risk underestimation in major projects and potential treatments.

Purpose: To enable course members to apply and consolidate the knowledge gained in GSZ512 about: the application of real options thinking in complex projects; and the potential causes and treatments of perennial and gross risk underestimation in complex projects.

Length/Duration: 2,000 words (excluding attachments)
Relates to objectives: Unit objectives: 2, 3, 4 and AOL goals: TBA
Weight: 60%
Internal or external: Internal
Group or individual: Individual
Due date: End of Module 6

Academic Honesty

Academic honesty means that you are expected to exhibit honesty and act responsibly when undertaking assessment. Any action or practice on your part which would defeat the purposes of assessment is regarded as academic dishonesty. The penalties for academic dishonesty are provided in the Student Rules. For more information you should consult the QUT Library resources for avoiding plagiarism.

Resource materials

Prescribed Text
Cooper, D., Grey, S., Raymond, G., & Walker, P. (2005). Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements. Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.

Palisade. (2009). Decision Tools Suite 5.0 Video Tutorials. Retrieved 1 May, 2009, from: < http://www.palisade.com/decisiontools_suite/5/tips/en/wn/ >

Required References
GSZ512 Study Guide and Readings

Other Resources
GSZ512 Blackboard site
Case studies

Risk assessment statement

There are no out-of-the-ordinary risks associated with lectures or tutorials in this unit. You should, however, familiarise yourself with evacuation procedures operating in the buildings in which you attend classes and take the time to
view the Emergency video.

Disclaimer - Offer of some units is subject to viability, and information in these Unit Outlines is subject to change prior to commencement of semester.

Last modified: 23-May-2011