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Probability and Stochastic Modelling 2

Unit code: MAB314
Contact hours: 4 per week
Credit points: 12
Information about fees and unit costs

This unit includes: models for stochastic processes and statistical methods, which have applications in engineering, information technology, finance, and physical and life sciences. Markov chains; random walks; branching processes; queueing processes; long-term behaviour of processes; use of generating functions; bivariate and conditional distributions; transformations of random variables; beta and gamma distributions; mixture distributions; order statistics, minimum and maximum.


Availability
Semester Available
2013 Semester 1 Yes

Sample subject outline - Semester 1 2013

Note: Subject outlines often change before the semester begins. Below is a sample outline.

Rationale

This unit develops stochastic process models and statistical methods, which have applications in engineering, information technology, finance, and physical and life sciences. It includes: Markov chains; random walks; branching processes; queueing processes; long-term behaviour of processes; use of generating functions; bivariate and conditional distributions; transformations of random variables; beta and gamma distributions; order statistics.
This unit provides the formal statistical tools for all statistical theoretical and applied development for models and methods in a wide range of varied areas, from communication systems and networks to traffic to law to biology to financial analysis linking with other modern areas of mathematics. It is therefore important in developing skills and knowledge in both statistics and mathematics.

Aims

The unit aims to builds on the foundation established in MAB210 to develop the theory, models and properties of key stochastic and distributional processes and methods for applications in a wide range of areas. The emphasis is on modelling and problem-solving.

Objectives

On completion of this unit, you should be able to

1. Have a sound understanding of the basic concepts and application of stochastic and statistical modelling in analysing processes and data and interpreting real problems.

2. Appreciate the value of the principles and methods of stochastic and statistical modelling and the necessary mathematical tools.

3. Have developed skills in recognition of situations, identification of variables, choosing appropriate models and using mathematical tools.

4. Have developed generic skills in problem tackling, collaborative and individual work, written and oral communication, and appropriate technical methods.

5. Have understood the relevance of the work of this unit to problem-solving and interpretation in all the courses in which you are likely to be involved, or in all the areas with which you may have contact: mathematics, all the sciences, engineering, information technology, business, law, education, health, social sciences.

Content

Developing skills in using mathematical tools to solve statistical and stochastic problems.

Skills and familiarity in describing and setting up problems, and identifying methods and tools to solve them.

Skills in communication in problem-solving.

Building on skills of Statistical Modelling 1 to develop understanding and ability to work with sampling distributions, functions of random variables, stochastic models including Markov chains, branching processes, queuing and birth and death processes.

Developing familiarity and ability to use and interpret parameters and properties of key distributions, and models of stochastic and statistical processes.

Developing understanding and skills in using ranks for key statistical procedures in the non-parametric area.

Appreciation of the international universality of the principles, concepts and methods of this unit, their relevance to practical problems in all cultures and for all nationalities, and their role in allowing communication irrespective of language and culture.

Approaches to Teaching and Learning

The work will be context-based using a wide variety of examples from many different areas of application.

The emphasis will be on: learning through experience, learning in groups and as individuals, written and oral communication, and developing skills and attitudes to promote life-long learning. A combination of discussion, working through small and larger problems, and expressing solutions individually and in groups, will help development in problem-solving, critical assessment skills, and intellectual debate.

Assessment

All formative and summative assessment is designed to assist students with their learning and development of skills and knowledge throughout the semester. Ongoing participation in all formative and summative assessment is highly recommended to optimise learning in this unit. Further assessment details will be provided on Blackboard.Full solutions will be provided in a timely manner for all formative and summative assessment in problem-solving throughout the semester. Feedback on individual work will also be provided during tutorial classes. Ongoing guidance will be provided with individual development of skills, knowledge and confidence in tackling problems, in working individually and in groups and in communication.

Assessment name: Problem Solving
Description: (Formative/summative) - These consist of exercises and problems both in and out of class strategically timed to optimise your learning. They cover the core operational knowledge and skills of the unit and provide you with an excellent way of learning through applying techniques to real problems within context.The individual components of the exercises and problems will be marked with feedback to help with understanding and given to you within two weeks of submission of each.
Relates to objectives: All.
Weight: 45%
Internal or external: Internal
Group or individual: Group with Individual Component
Due date: Approx Fortnightly

Assessment name: Examination
Description: (Summative) - This will consist of a written exam based on and representative of the work during the semester, and suitable for all of you in the unit with regard to length and range of questions. Any calculator may be used, and you will be able to take your own personal summaries and written comments into the exam.
Relates to objectives: All.
Weight: 55%
Internal or external: Internal
Group or individual: Individual
Due date: Central Exam Period

Academic Honesty

QUT is committed to maintaining high academic standards to protect the value of its qualifications. To assist you in assuring the academic integrity of your assessment you are encouraged to make use of the support materials and services available to help you consider and check your assessment items. Important information about the university's approach to academic integrity of assessment is on your unit Blackboard site.

A breach of academic integrity is regarded as Student Misconduct and can lead to the imposition of penalties.

Resource materials

References:
1. Sheldon M Ross, Introduction to Probability Modelling, Academic Press

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Risk assessment statement

There are no out of the ordinary risks associated with this unit. Emergency exits and assembly areas will be pointed out in the first few lectures. You are referred to the university's health and safety web site http://www.hrd.qut.edu.au/healthsafety/healthsafe/index.jsp for further information.

Disclaimer - Offer of some units is subject to viability, and information in these Unit Outlines is subject to change prior to commencement of semester.

Last modified: 08-Jan-2013